Mary,
I'm sorry it took so long to compile the attached statistics. Please forward
these on to the land managers. I am copying the azgeocaching.com mailing
list.
You will recall that at the original land management meeting in September,
2002, we compiled a set of statistics based on the 100 oldest active caches
in Arizona. We chose that subset to give us the greatest history and likely
the most consistent statistics. Also, the oldest caches were more likely to
be placed in open lands such as would be of concern to land managers. Those
statistics are repeated as the first section of the attached Excel
spreadsheet.
We've now run a similar set of statistics against the 100 oldest active
caches today. 90 of the hundred oldest last year remain on the list, the
others having been archived for various reasons (the Aspen fire on Mt.
Lemmon being one significant one).
From my point of view, the most significant statistic is the average number
of days between finds for these caches. What is remarkable is that the
number has hardly changed from last year to this. These caches are found on
the average of once every 37 days, or less than once every five weeks. Even
if we were to make a rather rash assumption that only half of those who seek
a cache log that event online, that would still mean these caches are
visited only once every two to three weeks or so. We could halve that number
again for the people who look for the caches but don't find them (the
average of logged unsuccessful attempts in less than 2, but it's probable
that many who can't find a cache don't log such an attempt). Even
considering that, our average visitation rate, very worst case, would appear
to be on the order of once every ten days or so.
I think this is important for two reasons. One is that the increased
popularity of Geocaching doesn't lead to an increase in visitation to any
given Geocache. That is because as the Geocacher population increases, so
does the number of caches. If you remember from our most recent meeting, the
number of caches in Arizona has essentially doubled in the last year, to
1,659 on the night of our most recent meeting. (By the way, that works out
to a statewide geographical density of one Geocache for every 68.5 square
miles). The other reason is that cachers, especially newcomers, by and large
tend to seek out less challenging caches, leaving the caches in remote areas
until they gain more experience, stamina, or both. So I believe this number
should allay the fears that hordes of Geocachers are descending on any
particular Geocache and adversely impacting the environment by sheer force
of numbers.
And based on the discussions at our meeting, I don't believe that fear is as
intense as it appeared to be in 2002. I think we're all becoming more
attuned to each others' concerns and desires and looking for ways to address
them all. I believe that as we go forward that cooperative spirit will
continue to grow and prevail. I look forward to next year's meeting, and I'm
sure we'll be in touch well before then.
Regards,
Steve
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